.png "Mohamed Adel"){kind=small}
Wolverhampton Wanderers, Burnley and West Ham United are projected to occupy the Premier League relegation places in 2025-26, with Opta’s latest supercomputer simulation placing Wolves and Burnley above 99% to go down. Tottenham Hotspur remain just outside the bottom three but still face a significant risk.
Wolves sit bottom with 17 points from 31 matches, managing only three wins while conceding 54 goals. Burnley follow with 20 points, while West Ham occupy 18th on 29 points, leaving the relegation picture tightly contested just above the drop zone.
Tottenham are directly involved in that fight. Spurs are 17th on 30 points, only one point clear of West Ham, and carry a 27.10% probability of relegation. Nottingham Forest and Leeds United sit slightly higher but are not fully clear, with both clubs still within reach of danger based on current projections.
Relegation Probabilities Snapshot (Opta Model)
| Position | Team | Played | Points | Goal Difference | Relegation Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wolves | 31 | 17 | -30 | 99.94% |
| 19 | Burnley | 31 | 20 | -28 | 99.89% |
| 18 | West Ham United | 31 | 29 | -21 | 57.48% |
| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur | 31 | 30 | -10 | 27.10% |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 31 | 32 | -12 | 8.74% |
| 15 | Leeds United | 31 | 33 | -11 | 6.80% |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 30 | 39 | -2 | 0.05% |
The gap between 18th and 15th is only four points, which keeps the survival race open despite the high probabilities assigned to Wolves and Burnley. West Ham remain the most likely team to drop into the bottom three permanently, given their current position and probability.
How the Bottom Half Shapes the Run-In
The relegation battle is defined by two separate tiers. Wolves and Burnley appear cut adrift based on both results and projections, while the fight between West Ham, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and Leeds United remains fluid.
West Ham’s position is particularly unstable. Sitting inside the bottom three but within one win of safety, their survival chances will depend on short-term results rather than long-term projections. Tottenham’s situation is similar, with a narrow points advantage offset by a relatively high relegation probability.
Nottingham Forest and Leeds United have slightly stronger buffers but remain within reach of the drop zone. Crystal Palace, by contrast, look effectively safe with 39 points and a negligible relegation probability.
Promoted Teams Defying Recent Trend
Recent Premier League seasons saw all three promoted teams relegated immediately, but that pattern is under pressure this season. Leeds United have positioned themselves above immediate danger, while Sunderland sit mid-table on 43 points after 31 matches, clear of any relegation threat.
Burnley, despite arriving with a 100-point Championship campaign, have struggled to adapt at this level. Wolves, an established Premier League side, face the most severe risk after a season defined by poor results and defensive issues.
Title Race Context Adds Pressure Below
While Arsenal lead the table on 70 points and Manchester City follow on 61, the intensity of the relegation battle contrasts sharply with the stability at the top. The bottom half remains unsettled, with only a handful of points separating multiple teams.
With several matches remaining, the data highlights clear favourites for relegation but leaves enough uncertainty to keep the fight for survival active heading into the final phase of the 2025-26 Premier League season.