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Tottenham Hotspur host Atletico Madrid at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Wednesday night needing a major turnaround to stay in the Champions League. Spurs trail 5-2 from the first leg in Madrid, leaving Igor Tudor’s side with little margin for error in the round-of-16 return.
The damage was done early at the Metropolitano, where Atletico punished Tottenham’s poor start and raced into control of the tie. Antonin Kinsky, handed his first start in the competition, endured a difficult night and was directly involved in two of Atletico’s first three goals before being substituted inside 17 minutes.
Tottenham did recover from 4-0 down to leave Spain with at least a slimmer deficit, and that late response gives the second leg some shape. The mood around the club also improved slightly at the weekend when Richarlison scored a 90th-minute equaliser in a draw away to Liverpool.
Even with that lift, Tottenham face a task that history makes clear is rare. Before this season’s round of 16, 51 teams had lost the first leg of a knockout tie by at least three goals, and only four of them went on to progress. Liverpool’s comeback against Barcelona in the 2018-19 semi-finals remains the most recent example mentioned in that group.
Atletico Madrid arrive in London with the stronger position in the tie and another league win behind them after a 1-0 home victory over Getafe. Diego Simeone’s side have now won four successive La Liga matches and remain third in the table, but their away form offers Tottenham some encouragement.
Atletico have won only once away from home in the Champions League this season and lost both of their visits to English stadiums during the league phase. Their domestic away numbers are also modest, with four wins from 13 La Liga matches on the road. Tottenham, meanwhile, are on a 24-game unbeaten run in European home matches, stretching back to a 1-0 defeat by RB Leipzig in February 2020 under Jose Mourinho.
Team news gives Tottenham more options than they have had in recent weeks. Joao Palhinha and Cristian Romero both followed concussion protocols after a collision last week, and both have returned to training in some capacity, with Romero described as the more likely to feature. Destiny Udogie and Lucas Bergvall are also available again, though Tudor may still have Sunday’s Premier League meeting with Nottingham Forest in mind.
Richarlison is suspended, while Joao Souza is not part of Tottenham’s Champions League squad for the knockout rounds. If Tudor keeps the 4-4-2 shape used at Anfield, Randal Kolo Muani could start alongside Dominic Solanke, with Micky van de Ven potentially used at left-back.
Tottenham’s predicted lineup is: Vicario; Porro, Danso, Romero, Van de Ven; Gallagher, Sarr, Gray, Tel; Solanke, Kolo Muani.
Atletico will again be without Jan Oblak because of a muscle strain, so Juan Musso is set to continue in goal. Pablo Barrios is out with a hamstring complaint, while Rodrigo Mendoza is also unavailable. Antoine Griezmann and Julian Alvarez are expected to start in attack, with Alexander Sorloth likely to be used from the bench.
Atletico Madrid’s predicted lineup is: Musso; Pubill, Le Normand, Hancko, Ruggeri; Simeone, Llorente, Cardoso, Lookman; Alvarez, Griezmann.
The match takes place in London on Wednesday, March 18, with kick-off at 8 p.m. GMT. Daniel Siebert will referee the second leg, with Bastian Dankert on VAR.
The prediction attached to the fixture is a 2-1 Tottenham win, a result that would still send Atletico Madrid through on aggregate.